If you use this: http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
Obama wins big. Even if you were to say the GOP "steals" Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, Obama wins. The ones with gray means there is no data. Some states would go blue: Hawaii, DC, Maryland and Vermont. The gray that goes red are Idaho and South Dakota.
Yeah I have been following that dashboard for a while. Obama sure is
unpopular in Utah & Oklahoma.
There are currently 18 states where Obama's ahead by more than 8% in the poll averages this is based on - CA, CT, DE, IA, IL, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VA, WA, WI - and they add up to 253 electoral votes, with 270 being the target. I don't know if McCain trails by at least 8% in HI, but if it's more than that in all the rest of New England I suspect it's true in VT, and we can throw in Maine where he trails by 7.6%. Likewise if it's more than that in VA it almost certainly is true in MD. And for sure it's true in DC, so that makes 273.
So you can give McCain not only Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, but you can also throw in Missouri, Nevada & even Colorado & it's still not enough. And he trails in CO by a solid 6%, a state where the Dems have beaten the Reps in 4 straight state-wide elections.
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