The Katrina Report

[mshray]

Here are the results.  Just under 300 songs have made at least 5 appearances in the nearly 800 sets in the archive, through today. First a couple of words on methodology.  I did find & remove from consideration 6 'Classic' sets that were in fact dupes of a set already in the Db.  I didn't take into consideration the gaps in Darryl's setlist collection, which was simply too much work.  I did take into consideration tunes that show up largely in annual theme sets, such as "The Simple Life", "Hot Fun in the Summertime" or "Fisherman's Blues" and unless they had at least 5 appearances in 'year-themed' sets they didn't make the list (which knocked over a dozen songs out, btw).  I did count an appearance in a Vertical Tasting in the total.  Once in a while Dave plays a song in the wrong year, and I didn't take that into consideration once I looked at my worst offenders, because they uniformly weren't in that category.  But a significant proportion of songs in the 5-7 range were 'straddlers'.

Okay, to the results.  The following songs had 8 or more Total Appearances:

Fine Young Cannibals - Good Thing, 1989 - 12
Robbie Nevil - C'est La Vie, 1987 - 11
Church - Metropolis, 1990 - 10
Crowded House - Sister Madly, 1988 - 10
Re-Flex - Politics of Dancing, 1984 - 10
Terence Trent D'Arby - Wishing Well, 1988 - 10
Crowded House - Something So Strong, 1987 - 9
Dwight Twilley - I'm On Fire, 1975 - 9
Huey Lewis & the News - The Power of Love, 1985 - 9
Men at Work - Who Can it Be Now?, 1982 - 9
Missing Persons - Words, 1982 - 9
Psychedelic Furs - Love My Way, 1983 - 9
Translator - Everywhere That I'm Not, 1982 - 9
Duran Duran - Hungry Like the Wolf, 1983 -8
Haircut 100 - Love Plus One, 1982 - 8
Jam - Monday, 1981 - 8
Rick Springfield - Jessie's Girl, 1981 - 8
Talk Talk - Talk Talk, 1982 - 8
Tones on Tail - Go!, 1984 - 8
Wang Chung - Dance Hall Days, 1984 - 8


Things change a bit when we look at the Occurrence Rate, factoring in the total # of sets for a particular year.  The following songs show up at least 5 times AND in at least 1/3 of All Sets for their given year:

Cranberries - Dreams, 1993 - 77.8%
Annie Lennox - Little Bird, 1993 - 55.6%
Church - Metropolis, 1990 - 52.6%
Crowded House - Sister Madly, 1988 - 45.5%
Terence Trent D'Arby - Wishing Well, 1988 - 45.5%
Fine Young Cannibals - Good Thing, 1989 - 41.4%
Nirvana - Lithium, 1992 - 41.2%
Tom Cochran - Life is a Highway, 1992 - 41.2%
Robbie Nevil - C'est La Vie, 1986 - 40.7%
Color Me Badd - All 4 Love, 1991 - 38.9%
EMF - Unbelievable, 1991 - 38.9%
Matthew Sweet - Girlfriend, 1991 - 38.9%
Metallica - Enter Sandman, 1991 - 38.9%
Rembrandts - Just the Way it is, Baby, 1991 - 38.9%
Michael Penn - No Myth, 1990 - 36.8%
Midnight Oil - Blue Sky Mine, 1990 - 36.8%
Dwight Twilley - I'm On Fire, 1975 - 36.0%
Huey Lewis & the News - The Power of Love, 1985 - 36.0%
Crowded House - Something So Strong, 1986 - 33.3%
R.E.M. - Texarkana, 1991 - 33.3%


Crowded House deserves a special analysis.  Dave has played a total of 5 different songs of theirs in '87 & '88 sets (Don't Dream it's Over, Something So Strong, World Where You Live, Better Be Home Soon & Sister Madly), which have between them appeared a total of 33 times in 47 combined sets from the two years, or 70% of the time!   And even in '91 sets we have a 32% chance of hearing either "Fall At Your Feet" or "It's Only Natural", which for me at least are total Naradas.

A couple of songs with only 4 appearances deserve special mention, too.  First of all, Weezer's "Buddy Holly" is well on it's way to being one of the biggest Katrinas of all time.  There have only ever been 6 sets from 1996 (the only year from which I can say I definitely have all the sets) & it has popped up FOUR times already.  Which gives it the 2nd highest repeat rate, albeit from a relatively small (yet statistically complete) sample size.

The other one is Diana Ross & the Supremes "Someday We'll Be Together", which is in 4 out of our 22 sets from 1969, but, as Gaz can tell you, has been tune #10 Every. Single. Time.

[RGMike]

Brilliant work, sir.  We all owe you a beer.

Note the preponderance of late-'80s/early'90s years attached to high-totaled songs, implying (proving?) that Dave just doesn't have the range/imagination in, say, '87 or '89, that he does in '73.

I'm astounded that the Diana & the Supe's "SWBT" only shows up 4 times.

The obvious question:  how many total appearances for "Walking on Sunshine"?

[mshray]

Note the preponderance of late-'80s/early'90s years attached to high-totaled songs, implying (proving?) that Dave just doesn't have the range/imagination in, say, '87 or '89, that he does in '73.

I'm astounded that the Diana & the Supe's "SWBT" only shows up 4 times.

The obvious question:  how many total appearances for "Walking on Sunshine"?

If you look at the Rate list it's even worse, especially 1991.

Katrina herself shows up 7 times, but 2 of those are in Summer/Sunshine theme sets.  But she had earned her status way back before Darryl came on line.  In fact we were already debating whether or not she had been de-Katrinafied before Darryl came on line.

As to SWBT, you have to keep in mind that 4 appearances in '69 sets is quite a lot because Dave is much more eclectic in those years.  In fact only 5 songs appear more often:

Spirit - I Got a Line On You, 6
Steam - Na Na, Hey Hey, Kiss Him Goodbye, 6
Beach Boys - I Can Hear Music, 5
Jeff Beck - Plynth, 5
Rascals - See, 5

And to further prove the point, by my definition, there are ZERO Katrinas in 1970, the only year of which that can be said.

[RGMike]

there are ZERO Katrinas in 1970, the only year of which that can be said.

Wow, that's a very cool statistic! If I were gonna hazard a guess as to the closest thing to near-Katrina in 1970, it'd be "Westbound #9"

[urth]

My hat's off to you, pard. A monumental effort of statistical analysis (not to mention data entry).

As Mike mentioned, the first thing that struck me was how overwhelmingly both lists are made up of songs from 1981 or later (essentially all but I'm On Fire from the Total Appearances list).

One thing I'm curious about is some sort of baseline. How many total sets were entered into your database, and how many for each year? I'm not questioning your methodology--it sounds like you have more than enough to create a valid statistical base, just want to get some perspective.

The one song I'm curious about is Deep Purple's Hush, from 1968. That song, more than any other from that year, seems to me to pop up relatively often.

Again, a job well done.

[RGMike]

The one song I'm curious about is Deep Purple's Hush, from 1968. That song, more than any other from that year, seems to me to pop up relatively often.

I would guess the Moodies' "Forever Afternoon (Tuesday)" would be a prime '68 repeater, but then I'm shocked that "Dear Diary" hasn't appeared more than 4 times in '69!

[mshray]

My hat's off to you, pard. A monumental effort of statistical analysis (not to mention data entry).

As Mike mentioned, the first thing that struck me was how overwhelmingly both lists are made up of songs from 1981 or later (essentially all but I'm On Fire from the Total Appearances list).

One thing I'm curious about is some sort of baseline. How many total sets were entered into your database, and how many for each year? I'm not questioning your methodology--it sounds like you have more than enough to create a valid statistical base, just want to get some perspective.

The one song I'm curious about is Deep Purple's Hush, from 1968. That song, more than any other from that year, seems to me to pop up relatively often.

Again, a job well done.

"Hush" is one of the 4 official 1968 Katrinas:
Sam & Dave - I Thank You, 6
Simon & Garfunkel - Scarborough Fair/Canticle, 6
Beach Boys - Do it Again, 5
Deep Purple - Hush, 5

There are 791 total sets, of which 120 are Themed.  The breakdown of Year-specific sets is as follows, where the first number is the gross total & the number in parentheses is the subtotal since May '04:
1965 - 3 (3)
1966 - 2 (2)
1967 - 8 (7)
1968 - 21 (16)
1969 - 21 (15)
1970 - 22 (11)
1971 - 22 (12)
1972 - 23 (14)
1973 - 22 (13)
1974 - 28 (18}
1975 - 25 (16)
1976 - 28 (18}
1977 - 30 (20)
1978 - 32 (21)
1979 - 32 (19)
1980 - 29 (19)
1981 - 33 (21)
1982 - 31 (19)
1983 - 36 (22)
1984 - 31 (19)
1985 - 25 (17)
1986 - 23 (14)
1987 - 25 (15)
1988 - 22 (16)
1989 - 23 (16)
1990 - 19 (12)
1991 - 18 (12)
1992 - 17 (9)
1993 - 9 (6)
1994 - 6 (5)
1995 - 3 (3)
1996 - 2 (2)

[mshray]

Another thing I calculated amongst the Katrinas was the BOS Rate, namely how often does a bonafide Katrina get a BOS win?  I count being part of a 3-way tie as 0.33 pts, etc., then divide by the number of sets.  Of the 285 Katrinas in my list a full 60% have never won even a fraction of a point, and only 81 have at least a full point.  

The following songs are Katrinas, but we can't blame Dave for playing them when the win BOS over 40% of the time (especially Thomas Dolby's "I Love You, Godbye" which has NEVER failed to win!).

Thomas Dolby - I Love You, Goodbye, 100%
Gary Moore - Still Got the Blues, 76.6%
Pink Floyd - One of These Days, 70%
Sweet - Love is Like Oxygen, 66.7%
Grateful Dead - Althea, 66.7%
Vapors - Turning Japanese, 60%
Clash - The Magnificent 7, 60%
Wall of Voodoo - Mexican Radio, 55.5%
Simon & Garfunkel - Scarborough Fair/Canticle, 50%
English Beat - I Confess, 50%
Thomas Dolby - She Blinded Me With Science, 46.6%
Annie Lennox - Little Bird, 42.8%
Saga - On the Loose, 41.7%

[Alicat]

Nice work on those numbers.
Interesting stuff.

[ggould]

Grateful Dead - Althea, 66.7%

I've always found Dave's penchant for Althea interesting.  Althea is a song unknown outside of GD-land, unless I've missed something.  It's a genuine taste of what went on live.  Is this clearly Dave's favorite Dead song?

[urth]

Another thing I calculated amongst the Katrinas was the BOS Rate, namely how often does a bonafide Katrina get a BOS win?  I count being part of a 3-way tie as 0.33 pts, etc., then divide by the number of sets.  Of the 285 Katrinas in my list a full 60% have never won even a fraction of a point, and only 81 have at least a full point.  

The following songs are Katrinas, but we can't blame Dave for playing them when the win BOS over 40% of the time (especially Thomas Dolby's "I Love You, Godbye" which has NEVER failed to win!).

Thomas Dolby - I Love You, Goodbye, 100%
Gary Moore - Still Got the Blues, 76.6%
Pink Floyd - One of These Days, 70%
Sweet - Love is Like Oxygen, 66.7%
Grateful Dead - Althea, 66.7%
Vapors - Turning Japanese, 60%
Clash - The Magnificent 7, 60%
Wall of Voodoo - Mexican Radio, 55.5%
Simon & Garfunkel - Scarborough Fair/Canticle, 50%
English Beat - I Confess, 50%
Thomas Dolby - She Blinded Me With Science, 46.6%
Annie Lennox - Little Bird, 42.8%
Saga - On the Loose, 41.7%

Surprised there's no Todd Rundgren on this list, given how dominant he tends to be in most cases (Thursday's set notwithstanding).

What about Journey to the Center of the Mind? That seems to appear pretty frequently, to my memory, too.

[RGMike]

Surprised there's no Todd Rundgren on this list, given how dominant he tends to be in most cases (Thursday's set notwithstanding).

What about Journey to the Center of the Mind? That seems to appear pretty frequently, to my memory, too.

Like ELO, Steve Miller, FMac etc, Todd's an artist who shows up frequently, but Dave mines his catalog with enough diversity to avoid making one song a Katrina. Mark's next assignment: the most-played artists. Those I mentioned would surely be on the list.

And yeah, I agree that JTTCOTM seems to have been in lots of '68 sets.

[ggould]